The starting five...

Part three of a five-part preview of the upcoming Yankees season. Today, we take a look at the starting rotation.

Now that the Big Back Spasm has moved back the desert with the rest of the senior citizens, we can talk about those who remain.

At this point only three spots are nailed down: Wang, Pettitte, Mussina. While even those three come with issues—Can Pettitte and Mussina hold up? Can Wang ever strike anyone out?—for the purposes of this discussion, we’ll consider those spots resolved. Then there’s the mystery participant with the first name sure to be mispronounced by nearly every fan until at least the All-Star Break, Kei (as in the scorebook notation for “strikeout”) Igawa. Nobody knows, Yankee management included, what they have in this guy. Best case scenario, he’s Nomo at his pinnacle. Worst case is “Fat Toad” Irabu. We just don’t know. The early word out of Spring Training is that he’ll be solid, but this is Spring Training, after all, and his first start was less than brilliant. Yet, he’s only 27 and, even with a necessary adjustment to the Majors, should be good for at least 10–12 wins in the fifth spot in the rotation. (As an aside, is it significant that the best Japanese baseball imports have been position players? Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi have all produced while pitchers have generally floundered. And so, what do both the Yanks and Red Sox do this offseason? Throw crazy money at Japanese starting pitchers, of course. Just thought it was worth pointing out. Maybe in August it will matter and you will think of me.)

And then, there is the walking Darwin Award, Carl “Porcelain” Pavano. Every major discussion of the Yanks that has been written this off-season—and especially once the Johnson rumors began springing up—slotted Pavano into the rotation. This should concern Yankees fans, and, preferably, someone in the organization. Pavano has a career record of 61–64. When the Yanks exorbitantly overpaid for him a couple of winters ago, he had a sub-.500 record. Nothing has changed. In 2005, he was only 4–6 before getting hurt. He “held” opponents to a .315 batting average. The numbers suggest that Pavano is just not good. He wasn’t when the Yankees signed him and there’s no reason to believe that he will be in 2007. And, that’s just the ugly math part of the equation. Let’s take a look at the biology.

Pavano cannot stay healthy. Whenever your Yankees.com player bio page includes “highlights” such as “Made his final start of the season on 6/27 at Baltimore,” “Also made rehab start for Single-A Tampa (FSL) on 8/3 vs. Vero Beach, allowing 6 H and 3 ER in 6 IP to record the loss,” and “Was transferred to the 60-day disabled list on 8/30,” something’s not quite right. He made zero—as in just less than one—major league starts last year because of injuries. On top of the fact that he was getting hurt, he was also lying about it. If there was a pool for “Day on Which Carl Pavano Sustains a Significant Self-Inflicted Injury in a Dinner Table Accident,” I’d take April 10. And this man is supposed to fill the fourth spot?

Granted, there’s been talk of Clemens. While that would be nice, that’s a Band-Aid, not stitches. Why not bump Igawa to fourth, and open up competition to the youngsters like Sanchez, Karstens, Rasner, and especially Hughes, and let them battle for the fifth spot? This is the long-term solution.

The Yankees have spent all winter stockpiling young talent while simultaneously dumping huge contracts attached to the 1998 All-Star team, which is a great tactic. Brian Cashman has been able to Jedi mind-trick other GMs into giving up young, inexpensive, close-to-major-league-ready talent in exchange for old, expensive, close-to-retirement-ready tealent. So, why not see what the kids can do? Whatever the result, it couldn’t be worse than Pavano, it’s a mathematical impossibility. The way I understand it, one start for cheap is always better than none for expensive. Bring on the kids!

Hughes already has Tampa abuzz, and will likely be in the Bronx well before the Red Sox annual late-August fade. So why not let him start the season in the rotation? Why not simply cut your losses with Pavano, admit he’s a bum and move on? Let Pavano be a long reliever. Sure, that’s a lot to pay for a long reliever, but is it worse to pay that much for no starts? Maybe Pavano will surprise everyone, stay healthy and put up 12–15 wins. But, is this really the guy you want blocking Phil Hughes and the start of his near-certain All-Star caliber career? I say no. Stick Pavano in the ‘pen, Hughes on the bump. Besides, any competition that prepares the youngsters will naturally serve the team well if and when one of the starters goes down with an injury. My money is on Pavano.

I can see the headline now: “Yankees starter injured while combing his hair, out 6–8 weeks.” Let’s avoid this now so we can begin reading headlines like, “Hughes dominant as Yanks open 5 game lead in division.”